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Area bracing for rough winter? Almanac right so far

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Meteorologist says region due for 'rough winter'

By Jeff D'Alessio

The day the area saw its first blanket of snow, albeit slight on Tuesday, was on target with the 2013-2014 Old Farmer’s Almanac which predicted snow showers and cold weather Nov. 12-14.

Tuesday was Nov. 12.

If the almanac is right, there will be more snow showers sometime over the last three days of the month, too. A warming trend and wet weather was predicted for this weekend, too.

Last year, temperatures reached 63 degrees Nov. 12 according to the Mesonet Center in Cecilia. In all, temperatures in November a year ago topped out with highs of 45 degrees or more in 28 of 30 days.

The coldest day this month was Wednesday at 41.6 degrees.

Fort Knox Weather Center meteorologist Mark Adams said Tuesday’s blast of light snow and cool temperatures is not necessarily an indicator of things to come.

And neither are wooly worms, as many suggest are weather predictors.

“They’re no clue, either, I believe,” Adams said of wooly worms. “They’re a good conversation piece, just something to talk about. Just because we’ve had some early snow and some cold weather doesn’t mean that we will have that kind of winter.”

Adams said the area, however, is due for some cold and snow-filled days.

“We’ve dodged out the last two years,” he said. “We’ve had about an inch or so the last two years of snow and the average is about 14.6 inches.

“We’re due for a rough winter, a cold one and a deep one,” he added.

The Climate Prediction Center suggests normal amounts of precipitation and average temperatures throughout the winter.

Of course if that were to happen, the area would face a wintry mix over the next several months.

“It is cold now,” Adams said Thursday. “But we will have some pleasant days in December when it gets into the 50s. There will still be some good weather ahead, I believe.”

The almanac predicts four sessions of flurries or snow and lower than normal temperatures in December.

How crazy was last year? In February, for instance, Hardin County had nearly twice as many days (15) in the 50s as it did in the 30s (eight).

“Weather is very hard to predict months at a time,” Adams said.

The snowiest periods, according to the almanac, will be in early December and early March.

Jeff D’Alessio can be reached at 270-505-1757 or jdalessio@thenewsenterprise.com.